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Industries/Technology· India

Technology

Sector view

· Technology (India)

Structural · 2-5 year outlook

India's technology sector is undergoing a multi-year structural upgrade driven by government-led semiconductor ambitions, digital infrastructure expansion, and a maturing AI ecosystem. Policy frameworks such as Semicon 2.0, production-linked incentives, and state-level AI programs are layering public capital onto growing private investment, positioning India as a credible alternative manufacturing and digital-services hub. Execution risk, regulatory compliance costs, and uneven demand across sub-sectors remain key variables to watch over the medium term.

  • India IT sector market capitalisation approximately $250B; top-5 IT services firms account for ~60% of listed tech market cap
  • Semicon 2.0 program outlay significantly expanded from the original ₹76,000 crore India Semiconductor Mission, targeting fabrication and packaging capacity
  • Maharashtra AI policy targets ₹10,000 crore in AI investment with defined workforce development goals
  • India data-centre capacity expected to grow at ~20% CAGR through 2028, driven by cloud adoption and localisation mandates

▲ Tailwinds

  • Semicon 2.0 semiconductor ecosystem buildout5Y

    India's expanded semiconductor program funds fabrication, packaging, and chip design capacity, reducing long-term import dependence and strengthening the domestic electronics and AI stack. As capacity matures, downstream technology companies should benefit from lower component costs and shorter supply chains. This positions India to capture more value in the global semiconductor supply chain over a five-year horizon.

  • Electronics manufacturing tax incentive extension5Y

    Extended tax breaks for foreign electronics manufacturers and data-centre investors improve India's cost competitiveness versus rival manufacturing hubs such as Vietnam and Mexico. The parliamentary tax bill reduces policy uncertainty, encouraging large-scale, long-duration capital commitments in assembly, servers, and digital infrastructure. This should translate into sustained capex inflows and job creation across the electronics value chain.

  • AI compute infrastructure and public funding acceleration5Y

    Expanding public compute capacity and the Maharashtra state AI policy with a ₹10,000 crore outlay are lowering barriers for startups and enterprises to deploy AI workloads domestically. Broader access to subsidized compute and talent development programs should accelerate AI adoption across BFSI, healthcare, and manufacturing verticals. Over time, this could establish India as a significant AI services and products exporter.

  • Deeptech venture capital market deepening10Y

    The first close of Aum Ventures' deeptech fund signals growing private appetite for early-stage innovation in semiconductors, AI, and robotics in India. A deeper venture ecosystem reduces reliance on foreign capital for frontier technology development and supports a pipeline of domestically grown IP. Sustained fund formation in this category could meaningfully expand India's advanced-technology startup cohort over the next decade.

  • Data localisation driving domestic infrastructure demand2Y

    Tightened telecom data-localisation rules mandate that telecom data be stored and processed within India, structurally increasing demand for local data centres, edge compute, and cloud capacity. While compliance costs are a near-term headwind for operators, the regulation creates a durable demand floor for domestic digital infrastructure providers. This dynamic reinforces the investment case for Indian data-centre REITs, colocation operators, and hyperscaler local deployments.

▼ Headwinds

  • Telecom data-localisation compliance cost burden2Y

    India's strict data-localisation rules for the telecom sector raise operational and capital expenditure for cloud providers, telecom operators, and satellite-network companies that must build or lease local infrastructure. Smaller players with limited balance sheets may face disproportionate compliance costs, potentially consolidating the market around well-capitalised incumbents. Regulatory ambiguity around scope and enforcement timelines adds further uncertainty.

  • Uneven demand and selective earnings momentum2Y

    Mixed corporate earnings — strong results from telecom incumbents like Airtel contrasted with weaker industrial-tech performance — indicate that sector-wide revenue growth is not yet broad-based. Investors face stock-selection risk in an environment where macro tailwinds have not uniformly translated into earnings upgrades across IT services, hardware, and industrial technology. Sustained demand normalisation in global IT spending could further widen the gap between winners and laggards.

  • Semiconductor fabrication execution and talent gap5Y

    Despite Semicon 2.0 funding, India lacks a mature base of semiconductor process engineers, equipment suppliers, and yield-management expertise needed to operate advanced fabs. Execution delays and cost overruns in greenfield chip projects are common globally, and India's limited track record in fabrication increases this risk. The talent pipeline required to staff these facilities will take years to develop even with accelerated academic programs.

  • Global IT services demand cyclicality2Y

    India's large IT services exporters remain exposed to discretionary technology spending cycles in the US and Europe, which are sensitive to interest rates, corporate margins, and macro sentiment. A prolonged slowdown in enterprise software and outsourcing budgets would pressure revenue growth and headcount at India's top-tier IT firms. Currency volatility between the rupee and dollar adds an additional layer of earnings uncertainty.

  • Geopolitical supply-chain and export-control risk10Y

    India's ambition to integrate into global semiconductor and electronics supply chains exposes it to US-China technology decoupling dynamics and evolving export-control regimes on advanced chips and equipment. Restrictions on access to leading-edge lithography tools and chip architectures could constrain the pace of India's semiconductor capability development. Navigating these geopolitical constraints while maintaining relationships with multiple technology blocs will require careful diplomatic and industrial policy management.

Recent developments · Last 60 days

The past 60 days have been dominated by a wave of pro-technology policy actions in India, including parliamentary passage of an electronics and data-centre tax incentive bill, approval of the expanded Semicon 2.0 program, and a Maharashtra state AI policy. These measures have materially reduced policy uncertainty for digital infrastructure investors and electronics manufacturers. A countervailing negative came from tightened telecom data-localisation rules, while mixed corporate earnings underscored that sector momentum remains uneven across sub-industries.

  • 📈India extends tax breaks for electronics manufacturers and data-centre investors·2026-08-03

    Proposed tax changes improve India's competitiveness versus rival manufacturing hubs and are expected to accelerate investment in electronics assembly, servers, and data infrastructure. The move signals sustained government commitment to attracting global technology capital.

    Source: Reuters ↗
  • 📈Parliament passes tax bill easing rules for electronics and data-centre projects·2026-08-10

    The legislation reduces policy uncertainty for large-scale digital infrastructure projects and strengthens the outlook for domestic electronics supply chains. Passage converts the earlier proposal into binding law, lowering investment risk for foreign and domestic players.

    Source: Business Standard ↗
  • 📉India enforces strict telecom data-localisation rules·2026-07-24

    New rules require infrastructure providers to store and process telecom data within India, raising compliance costs for cloud, telecom, and satellite-network operators. The regulation simultaneously creates structural demand for domestic storage and compute capacity.

    Source: Economic Times Telecom ↗
  • 📈Government approves Semicon 2.0 with expanded semiconductor program outlay·2026-07-31

    The enlarged program supports fabrication, packaging, and chip design capacity, improving the long-term competitiveness of India's electronics and AI stack. Increased public funding is expected to catalyse private co-investment in the semiconductor value chain.

    Source: Economic Times Data Centres ↗
  • 📈Maharashtra clears state AI policy with ₹10,000 crore investment target·2026-08-08

    The policy adds a significant layer of sub-national public support for AI adoption, startup funding, and talent development, broadening India's AI ecosystem beyond central government initiatives. Maharashtra's scale as India's largest state economy amplifies the potential impact of the program.

    Source: WION News ↗
  • ○Mixed earnings season: Airtel resilient, industrial-tech names disappoint·2026-08-04

    Strong Airtel results contrasted with weaker performance from industrial-technology companies, highlighting that India's technology sector recovery is driven by selective winners rather than broad-based demand. The divergence reinforces the importance of sub-sector and stock-level differentiation for investors.

    Source: CNBC TV18 ↗

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