Our Methodology

Full business overview in plain English — what the company does, who its customers are, market cap tier, sector classification, and key business segments with revenue contribution. This sets the context for everything that follows.

How does the company make money at the unit level? Per bed, per customer, per transaction — we break down the revenue model, cost structure (fixed vs variable), operating leverage potential, and profitability drivers. We also identify the top 5 competitors with market share estimates and assess whether the industry is fragmented or concentrated.

Systematic evaluation of all five moat sources: intangible assets (brand, patents, licenses), switching costs, network effects, cost advantages, and efficient scale. Each is rated with specific evidence — not generic claims. We assess whether the moat is widening, stable, or narrowing, and quantify it through ROCE vs industry average, pricing power trends, and customer retention rates.

Numbers with narrative. For every metric — ROE, ROCE, margins, growth rates, debt levels, cash flow — we explain WHY it is what it is for this specific business. A low ROE might signal a capital-intensive growth phase, not poor management. A high PE might be justified by hidden operating leverage. We never say 'low ROE = avoid' without context.

Where will future growth come from? We quantify each vector: market growth (industry CAGR), geographic expansion (white space remaining), product expansion, market share gains, margin expansion from operating leverage, and M&A. Then we calculate TAM, SAM, current penetration, and the remaining runway multiple.

What is this business worth? We use multiple methods appropriate to the business model — DCF with explicit assumptions for mature cash flows, revenue multiples for high growth, EV/EBITDA on normalized earnings for cyclicals. We present a fair value range (not a target price), compare to historical valuation bands, and state whether the current price implies undervaluation, fair value, or overvaluation.

Brutally honest risk assessment focused on company-specific risks: competitive threats, customer concentration, technology disruption, debt burden, management integrity, related party transactions, and valuation risks. Each risk is rated by probability and impact with specific trigger events to watch.

The synthesis. Four questions answered directly: What makes this business special? Why will it grow? What is the valuation opportunity (and why does the gap exist)? What could go wrong? We pre-answer the toughest questions Buffett and Munger would ask about this business.

A 1-5 star conviction rating synthesizing all 8 phases. Six sub-scores (0-10): Business Quality, Competitive Moat, Financial Health, Growth Runway, Valuation Attractiveness, and Risk Profile. Each with detailed reasoning citing specific evidence. This is NOT a buy/sell recommendation — it is a structured assessment to inform your own decision.